Electric bicycles have more potential than electric cars

It is expected that 130 million electric bicycles to be sold globally, from 2020 to 2023, will be the best-selling product of electric vehicles in the next decade.

The next decade will see a revolution with the switch to battery power. The line-up will lead neither the Tesla Model 3 nor the other four-wheeled models, nor the electric scooter. It’s an electric bike.

Over the past few years, electric bicycles have been ignored in most countries around the world. From 2006 to 2012, this product line accounted for less than 1% of bicycle sales each year.

But things are changing, thanks to improvements in lithium-ion battery technology, price, capacity, as well as a shift in cities where gasoline cars are slowly shifting to zero-emissions. Analysts predict, sales of electric bicycles will increase dramatically in the next few years.

Deloitte, which released its annual telecom, media and technology forecasts last week, expects 130 million electric bikes to be sold globally from 2020-2023. The company also emphasized that the number of electric bicycles on the road will easily surpass other electric vehicles by the end of 2020.

Forecasts can make many people suspicious. In fact, Americans already like cars, and often cars are as big as possible, while the media often fights new electric cars, especially from companies like Tesla. Americans themselves see electric bicycles as more of a recreational vehicle than an official means of transport, and something that is used on fine days, not on rainy or snowy days like in the Netherlands. . In the US and Canada, only about 1% of commuters use bicycles.

But if one believes that sales of electric bicycles will reach 40 million units per year by 2023, and when looking at the selection ratio of electric vehicles, that is the forecast. By the end of 2018, only about 5.1 million electric vehicles were in operation, and only 12 million electric cars (cars and trucks) are expected to be sold in 2025.

Significant sales growth seemed to herald a drastic shift in the way of travel. Deloitte forecasts a 1% increase in the proportion of cyclists going to work from 2019 to 2022. The number may not be much across the board, but from a low base the difference is huge.